Wednesday, February 4, 2015

Watchlist: 2nd week February

I did some research on S&P and Morningstar to compare which companies on my watchlist had prices that were below their recommended fair value. I am willing to pay at fair value or slightly above fair value for a core holding. I will only pay for supporting and speculative positions when they are at a reasonable discount.

These reports were released on 1/27/2015 to 1/31/2015
Ticker Price 2/4/2015 Morningstar Fair Value Morningstar Price/FairValue S&P fair value S&P Price/FairValue
MSFT $41.84 $46.00 90.96% $46.60 89.79%
GE $24.16 $30.00 80.53% $26.80 90.15%
MA $84.18 $88.00 95.66% $98.10 85.81%
EMR $57.33 $69.00 83.09% $59.20 96.84%
CSX $34.57 $35.00 98.77% $36.00 96.03%
IBM $156.96 $196.00 80.08% $208.20 75.39%
UTX $117.79 $116.00 101.54% $126.30 93.26%

Ticker Forward PE PE Yield PEG Beta Debt/Eq Payout
MSFT 14.20 16.87 2.96% 2.02 1.02 0.31 47.20%
GE 13.20 16.00 3.81% 2.16 1.43 2.85 49.20%
MA 23.61 27.15 0.76% 1.62 0.93 0.22 14.20%
EMR 13.70 18.80 3.28% 2.35 1.33 0.60 56.00%
CSX 14.35 17.91 1.85% 1.68 1.33 0.87 27.20%
IBM 9.34 9.97 2.80% 2.21 0.62 3.44 20.30%
UTX 15.24 17.27 2.00% 1.88 1.12 0.59 34.20%
The best Price/FairValue include MSFT, GE, and IBM. I am waiting on IBM to report earnings that show growth before I invest, otherwise I see it as a depressing company to hold. I am considering GE and MSFT since they both offer over 3% yield, but would not consider these holdings to ever be core due to their dividend history.

MA looks like a good growth play here. PE is higher than what I would like but you pay more to hold a growth company. The dividend is small but he dividend growth is very large, like Visa. I like MA for its moat, low debt, low PEG, and impressive growth.

EMR is another good industrial dividend aristocrat currently yielding over 3%.

I consider UTX and CSX to be fair value. Since I am very light on industrials, I am keeping GE, CSX, and EMR on my watchlists.

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